1) TL;DR / Headline Signal
UiPath reports fiscal Q3 2026 after the close on December 3 with Wall Street looking for roughly $393 million in revenue and about $0.15 of non-GAAP EPS. Expectations are not low, but the company comes in with a strong recent history of beating on both revenue and earnings and then nudging full-year guidance higher.
Using the full options chain snapshot at $14.61, the 12/5 weekly at-the-money straddle (14.5 strike) trades around $1.95, implying a move of roughly 13% in either direction. Short-dated implied volatility is much higher than recent realized volatility, while the rest of the curve is elevated but more moderate. Combined with a heavily call-skewed front week, the overall setup points to a likely beat, guidance that is at least steady to slightly better, and a base-case reaction in the +6–10% range—bullish, but smaller than what the weekly straddle is pricing.
2) Setup / What the Street Expects
Into this print, consensus revenue is just under $393 million, roughly 10–11% year-on-year growth, with non-GAAP EPS around $0.15. That sits on top of a prior quarter where UiPath delivered a clean beat on both lines and lifted full-year ranges for revenue, ARR, and operating income.
On the fundamental snapshot from the same timestamp as the options data, the stock trades at a bit over 4.2x sales, with trailing net margins just above 1% and revenue growth in the high single to low double digits. Gross margin is over 83%, and leverage is modest: debt-to-equity is only about 0.04, while current and quick ratios sit near 2.7x and 2.5x respectively. This is a software name that has already pivoted from “grow at all costs” to “profitable grower,” but it still carries a growth-style valuation.
Technically, the shares are up modestly over the last year, sitting about 22% below the 52-week high of 18.74 and roughly 56% above the 9.38 low. That reflects a recovery from earlier drawdowns without a full rerating, leaving room in both directions depending on how convincingly management can sell the AI and automation story.
3) Fundamentals & Recent Results
The most recent quarter (Q2 FY26) was solid across the board. Revenue landed at $362 million, up 14% year on year. ARR reached about $1.723 billion, growing 11%, with net new ARR in the low-30-million range. Non-GAAP gross margin was in the mid-80s and non-GAAP operating income was in the low-60-million range, implying a mid-teens operating margin.
Off that base, management raised full-year guidance: revenue to the mid-$1.57 billion range, ARR to the high-$1.83 billion area, and non-GAAP operating income to roughly $340 million. The company is now clearly in “grow and harvest” mode—driving respectable double-digit top-line growth while steadily expanding margins and generating positive cash flow.
The fundamentals embedded in the user’s snapshot line up with that picture: mid-single-digit EPS on a trailing basis, very high gross margins, positive but thin net margins, and revenue growth in the high single to low double digits. Beta just above 1 signals slightly elevated market sensitivity but not extreme, and average volume is healthy. The main question for this quarter is whether ARR and net new ARR can show enough acceleration, especially in AI-related use cases, to support that valuation while margins continue to improve.
4) Options & Tape Diagnostics
All of the options observations here come from the full chain provided, with the stock at $14.61 and the as-of timestamp of 2025-12-02T20:09:45Z.
Event-week implied move and term structure
For the 2025-12-05 expiry (three days to go):
- Nearest-to-spot strike is 14.5.
- 14.5 call mid is about 1.04; 14.5 put mid is about 0.91.
- The combined straddle is ~1.95, implying a move of roughly 13.3% (1.95 ÷ 14.61).
The price-history summary in the same payload shows 30-day realized volatility around 60% annualized and 90-day realized around 63%. Short-dated implied volatility is therefore running roughly three times realized, while 2–4 week expiries (12/12, 12/19, 12/26 and early January) show straddle-implied moves in the mid-teens over longer windows. That’s a classic earnings hump: a very large discrete event premium with somewhat elevated, but not extreme, follow-through expectations.
Positioning: calls vs puts, by expiry and strike
Across the entire chain, the totals are heavily skewed toward calls:
- Call open interest: ~788k contracts vs ~188k puts.
- Call volume on the day: ~33k vs ~6.5k puts.
For the 12/5 expiry alone:
- Call OI is about 29.3k vs 10.1k puts.
- Call volume is roughly 10.6k vs 2.5k puts.
By strike within that event week:
- Largest call OI clusters sit at 14 (~6.9k contracts), 15 (~4.3k), 15.5 (~2.7k), 20 (~2.4k), and 14.5 (~2.3k).
- Put OI is smaller and more dispersed, with the biggest pockets around 14, 13.5, 14.5, 12.5 and 13, each in the low-thousands.
Implied volatility is essentially symmetric between calls and puts at a given strike, so the skew is in positioning, not pricing. The tape says traders have crowded into short-dated upside exposure while downside hedging exists but isn’t dominant.
This all adds up to a call-heavy, moderately speculative earnings setup:
- The front-week surface assumes a big move, but not a one-sided crash.
- Call walls around 14–15 and a secondary cluster at 20 can act as magnets or accelerants if the stock gaps higher.
- With event-week vol already very rich versus realized, traders who think the result will be “good but not explosive” have a strong argument for short-front/long-back structures.
5) Sentiment (Analysts, News, Social)
Analyst sentiment is cautious but not outright bearish. Aggregated ratings line up around a “Hold” consensus, with the average 12-month price target in the high-$13s to mid-$15s and a fairly tight range between low-$12 and high-$17. The target band is close to the current price, signalling respect for execution and the balance sheet but limited conviction in a major rerating without clearer signs of faster growth.
Recent coverage has emphasized the strong Q2 beat, the move to positive net income, and the guidance raise for FY26. At the same time, there is plenty of commentary noting competitive pressure in enterprise software and AI, as well as recent insider selling, which blunts enthusiasm. Technical write-ups highlight that UiPath’s relative strength rating has moved into the low-80s—often a prerequisite for leadership—but also that the shares are not in a clean breakout pattern and are best watched around the earnings event.
On the social side, path is quietly popular rather than a meme. There are bullish threads arguing that AI-driven automation and agentic workflows make UiPath a long-term winner, and some options-focused chatter around “cheap AI exposure” in the mid-teens, but the name hasn’t reached the kind of speculative fever pitch that would, on its own, be a reason to fade.
6) Guidance Scenarios
Base case (most likely)
- Revenue in the $398–405 million range, a 1–3% beat versus consensus.
- Non-GAAP EPS of $0.16–0.18 on stable gross margins and incremental operating leverage.
- ARR growth in the 11–13% band with net new ARR slightly above recent trends.
- Full-year guidance reiterated or nudged higher at the midpoint, with constructive but measured commentary on AI-driven automation and agentic workflows.
In this scenario, the stock likely gaps higher but not explosively. A move into the mid-teens, say +6–10%, would be consistent with the recent beat-and-raise pattern and the call-heavy tape, but it would still undershoot the 13% implied move, leaving short-premium traders and calendar structures in good shape.
Bull case
- Revenue at $410 million or better, implying a 4–5%+ beat.
- EPS of $0.20 or more, with a clear step-up in operating margin.
- ARR and net new ARR accelerate (helped by AI-heavy deals), with strong commentary on pipeline and large enterprise wins.
- Full-year guidance raised meaningfully again, and management leans into a more aggressive multi-year growth narrative for AI-driven automation.
Here, a +15–20% move is plausible. Call walls at 14–15 could give way quickly, and the higher-strike clusters (including 20) become relevant, potentially forcing dealers to chase delta and providing a short-term tailwind.
Bear case
- Revenue slips into the $380–388 million range, missing consensus and probing the low end of prior expectations.
- EPS lands in the $0.12–0.14 range, with margin pressure from spending or weaker mix.
- ARR growth fades toward high single digits, and management turns cautious on IT budgets, deal timing, or competition.
- Guidance is trimmed or left flat with a defensive tone.
In that outcome, the call-heavy positioning turns into an overhang. A 15–20% downside gap into the low-teens is very much on the table as speculative longs exit and dealers rebalance.
7) Trade Framework
This section is descriptive, not prescriptive. It outlines how some traders might choose to express views given the current setup.
Short-dated bullish call spread (earnings-week)
For traders leaning into the upside bias, a common approach is a defined-risk vertical in the event week, for example:
- Buy 12/5 15 calls.
- Sell 12/5 18 calls.
This structure benefits from a move into the high-teens that fits the base or bull case without requiring a multi-standard-deviation spike. The trade is sensitive to both direction and time decay; with vol this high, being wrong on direction is punished quickly.
Bullish put spread below spot
For those who see the balance sheet and margin profile as a floor:
- Sell 12/5 12.5 puts.
- Buy 12/5 10 puts.
This leans on the view that a catastrophic breakdown into single digits is unlikely unless guidance or ARR truly disappoints. Elevated front-week volatility means the credit per unit of downside cushion is relatively generous, but a guidance shock can still push the stock toward the short strike fast.
Calendar around the 15 strike
Given the steep earnings hump and sizable 15-strike call interest:
- Sell 12/5 15 calls.
- Buy 12/19 or 01/02 15 calls.
If the stock moves up modestly and then settles near the mid-teens after the print, short-dated vol should collapse while out-week vol stays supported by ongoing AI-automation headlines and residual positioning. A very large move through the strike can hurt, so sizing and strike selection matter.
8) Key Risks & What Would Change the View
The mild bullish bias here is predicated on continued beat-and-raise behavior, stable ARR growth, and no negative surprise on AI momentum.
The main risks:
- Guidance proves underwhelming, or ARR weakens more than expected.
- Macro or IT-budget commentary turns cautious, implying slower enterprise automation deals.
- Competitive dynamics in AI and automation compress UiPath’s growth or pricing power.
- The crowded short-dated call positioning unwinds violently, turning a modest gap into a larger reversal.
On the flip side, evidence of clear ARR acceleration, strong AI-related upsell, and another meaningful guidance hike would justify a more aggressive bullish stance and materially increase the odds that the realized move exceeds the rich event premium currently implied by the options market.